Election 2026: Just 2 weeks from ballots going out, Cooper lead growing

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(The Center Square) – Two weeks from Friday, absentee ballots go into the mail for any voter in North Carolina opening the 60-day longest voting window in America.

Democrat Roy Cooper, the former two-term governor, is increasingly gaining momentum against Republican Michael Whatley in a race capturing national attention because of its potential impact to flip a seat in the U.S. Senate.

Last week, three polls rolled out in three days. Cooper led 53%-42% in the Elon University Poll of 800 likely voters July 23-31 released Wednesday (+/- 5.6% margin of error); Cooper led 51.5%-39% in the Carolina Journal poll of 600 likely voters Aug. 9-10 released Wednesday (+/- 4% margin of error); and Cooper led 49%-42% in the Carolina Forward sampling of Aug. 3-6 released Monday (+/- 3.5% margin of error).

The latter poll difference remained exact from a May 4-8 sampling of 457 likely voters and Cooper increased an 11.1% lead from a May 10-11 sampling in the Carolina Journal poll.

Elon’s poll in April did not measure vote preference; rather, it measured the candidates in recognition.

In other recent polls, Cooper led 50%-41% in a Change Research sampling of 967 voters July 29-Aug. 1 and he led 53%-44% in a Fox News sampling of 1,005 registered voters July 23-27.

The outlier for Whatley in a July 10-11 sampling of 759 voters – Cooper led 48%-44% with 3.6% margin of error – has grown more distant as the marking of ballots has drawn closer.

This U.S. Senate seat is a viewed as a major player nationally in the quest for majority in the chamber. Republicans have 53 seats today. In no particular order, Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, Maine, Iowa, New Hampshire, Alaska, Texas and Montana are the other top battlegrounds among 35 races.

North Carolinians will choose a U.S. senator, all 14 members of the U.S. House, and all 170 members of the General Assembly.

Republicans are 5-for-5 in North Carolina's U.S. Senate races since losing to the late Kay Hagan in 2008. Democrats chase back to 1998 for the last time winning a Senate seat at the midterms. Yet Cooper, a career politician since 1986, counters with statewide wins in four attorney general races and two gubernatorial races – all from 2000 to 2020.

Republicans in statewide races for this decade – 2020, 2022 and 2024 – are 32-10 against Democrats, a party with significantly declining voter registrations for more than 20 consecutive years.

Cooper and Whatley have two of the most opposite ends supporters imaginable.

At the North Carolina Democratic Party state convention earlier this month, the keynote speaker was Democratic Socialists of America supporter U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. That's a group rising within the national party with a desire not only for ideological social reforms but also restructuring that includes abolishing the U.S. Senate; having Congress pick the president and U.S. Supreme Court; defunding the Pentagon; and allowing all residents regardless of citizenship to vote.

Second-term Republican Donald Trump picked Whatley to lead the Republican National Committee ahead of his bid for the White House in 2024. He's delivered a second term based on an "America first" agenda; strong military; border security that helps infrastructure costs in education and healthcare; energy independence; school choice; and cutting taxes for all socioeconomic levels.